For seasoned traders, who frequently ride the waves of capital markets, emotions may still play a part in decision making, but generally veterans know how to prevent themselves from being led by the baser instincts (when trading). Instead, professionals rely on trade systems and predetermined strategies.
But there’s a deeper level to the markets that underpins everything.
The way we fear liquidation and hope for an unlikely recovery touches some of the same nerves as dealing with an illness might, or drifting away while lost at sea might do.
By the way we tell the weather – from natural methods, found among the seafarers of Polynesia, to modern technologies – a storm can be anticipated, but not completely predicted in terms of its course and outcome.
The basic waves of life, for some safe within reasonable bands, and for some volatile with moments of extreme euphoria and deep lows, but always with the expectation that there is growth in the long-term.
The ways politics play out, the polls and elections, or even the bigger balance between various political models of governance and to which extent they hold sway in the world – and where assumed market dominance may suddenly be in doubt. Or those moments prior to a war, where tensions are high and sudden movements can spark escalation. The spread of a virus and the way the critical numbers are perceived and interpreted: that binary logic and the principals involved permeate everything.
But even the analysis and the relativity of it all echo throughout. The rallies and black swan events that fail to impress in the larger scheme of things, or the idea that growth is more about ratio rather than value; these are the same principles as those that come into play when we face hardship, are confronted with new information, or when we explore space.
But of course, although such poetic semblances are intriguing, the question is what we do with it, how we manage risk, and how we navigate volatility in the best possible manner.
In the end, while the movement of ants may indicate rain is coming, Google does better. While the randomness of events cannot be denied, not everything is out of our control.
So what now? And what does it mean to re-write the course of Bitcoin? Trends may be powerful, but they can be broken and set on a new course.
Right now, we find ourselves in a similar situation as we did in 2017. The markets are open, altcoins are in high demand, exchanges are running at top capacity, and we all know that we are in the post-halvening phase.
But this time, it could be different.
We have systems now, derivatives, better on and off ramps, more liquidity, more knowledge, a more diverse trading community, more expertise, and a growing number of professional participants – those veterans.
Now, the question is not just whether or not Bitcoin will surpass its all-time-high, but to what extent it will depreciate in the aftermath.