Quick Summary

• BTC’s indicators on the whole are bearish. This alongside the weak attempted move up and the stiff resistance at the 0.236 Fibonacci level ($10,375 USD) on the whole promote a bearish sentiment. However, there are also arguments for a bullish move, breaking the $10,500 resistance level.
  POWR has recently shows to be highly correlated with BTC. In fact, POWR has acted as an exaggerated BTC recently, with much higher volatility. This means that POWR will likely be majorly affected with the TA changing very quickly if BTC falls below $10000 USD.
• AAB is looking somewhat uncertain. However, once a breakout does occur it will be very clear of what the medium term has to offer. If it is bearish and AAB breaks below, then there is the potential for AAB to fall towards $0.4 USD easily. If there is a positive breakout, then $1 USD could be the next point of call after $0.75 USD is broken

BTC analysis

After BTCs recent downturn which saw the cryptocurrency fall from $12000 USD all the way to $9900 USD in a matter of days, BTC has managed to find some major support at the $10000 USD level.

BTC/USD $10000 USD support level

This support has been tested numerous times since the 4th of September and has traders questioning whether the bears have lost their grip on BTC.

Since the 4th, BTC has been mainly trading sideways , although it did recently break a downwards resistance line, potentially promoting the idea of a bounce back up to previous levels.

This resistance line as shown below has four points of validation and a fifth validation point where BTC used the previous resistance line as support for the move up. The upwards breakout above this resistance line has been somewhat weak, with it appearing that the bears are already trying to shift BTC back down.

BTC/USD broken resistance line

If we look deeper into this resistance line it shows that it is in fact a descending triangle with a descending pre-trend currently seeing a positive breakout. There is the descending resistance line which has many validation points and then the $10000 USD support level which is acting as the base for this triangle.

BTC/USD descending triangle

A triangle like this is typically bullish. Although currently BTC appears at risk of re-entering the triangle, which would be a major red flag for a move back down, a potential break below the $10000 USD support level.

This potential re-entry into the triangle is being fueled by the MACD and the QQE MT4. The MACD has seen a negative crossover in the positive area (bearish), while the QQE MT4 has seen a negative crossover around the 65/100 level (also bearish).

BTCs performance over the weekend and days to come will depend on how well BTC obeys these bearish signals.

BTC/USD QQE MT4, MACD

If BTC can use the downwards resistance from the triangle as support, alongside potentially the $10000 USD support level then this would be a big thumbs up towards a move back up and a potential break of the $10500 USD resistance level.

If BTC heavily embraces the MACD and QQE MT4s bearish sentiment, re-entering the triangle then the likelihood of BTC being able to stay above $10000 USD would be decreased significantly.

This then clearly leaves BTC with two potential directions. Either a rejection of the MACD and QQE MT4 where price is not heavily affected or the opposite. If BTC is not heavily affected then the next level which BTC could be looking at is $10500 then $10700 (+4.3%) USD. If BTC rejects the downwards support from the triangle most likely the S1 PP will be seen, with a likely move towards $9375 USD.

BTC/USD – Which way will BTC go?

With regard to the recent attempt to move up, BTC is not just seeing resistance at $10500 USD but also resistance at $10375 stemming from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. BTC has attempted to break above this level four times since 05/09/2020 although on each occasion has failed to do so.

BTC/USD Fibonacci resistance

If the recent triangle formation is then ignored we can see that there has been instead a period of sideways trading between $10400 USD and $10000 USD.

The significance of a breakout in either direction could be huge. If BTC chooses to break above, then this could very much be simply a blip in BTCs 2020 (since March) bull run. However if BTC breaks below then the impulsive wave of recent is very much over.

BTC/USD sideways trading

BTC Elliot Waves

When looking at the Elliot waves, the recent impulsive move appears potentially over, with wave five coming to an end when BTC hit $12500 USD. This will then see the beginning of a likely corrective wave, with the move from $12500 USD – $9900 USD being the first part (A) of the corrective wave. We can not be sure of this.

If the Elliot waves suggested in the chart below are correct, then a move towards $10500 USD would appear next in line for BTC.

BTC/USD Elliot waves

BTC Indicators

Set one – MACD, EFI, KCs, PPs, Heikin Ashi

Heikin Ashi – The Heikin Ashi is currently green – this is bullish. It looks as though a move similar to the first circle could occur.

PPs – The PPs are currently below the centre PP – this is bearish. BTC did however manage to find wick support at the S1 PP.

EFI – The EFI is bullish. The indicator is suggesting that there is potentially further for it to climb and reach the centre line, which would indicate upwards price movement.

MACD – On the daily candles the MACD histogram is red – this is bearish. The MACD is now below the centre line, a bullish crossover has not yet occurred.

KCs – The KCs are bearish. If BTC can break above the lowest KC band then a move towards the centre band would appear likely. However at this moment, they remain bearish.

BTC/USD MACD, EFI, KCs, PPs, Heikin Ashi

Indicators set two – PnF, QQE MT4, WWV, RSI, Gann HL, SAR

PnF – The PnF indicator is red with a simple sell indication – very much bearish. There is also a resemblance between circle one and circle two, pointing further towards increased downwards movement.

SAR – The SAR is currently above the price – bearish. There is a fair distance between the candle and the SAR as well, BTC is showing little signs of flipping the SAR anytime soon.

QQE MT4 – The QQE MT4 has remained bearish. The crossover is still negative, although is running out of room to move further down.

WWV – The WWV indicator is currently red – bearish. Until the WWV turns green, this indicator will remain bearish.

RSI – The RSI currently has a value of 35. This shows that the bears are in control, however BTC is not oversold meaning that there is room to fall further.

Gann HL – The Gann HL is currently red – bearish. Until the Gann HL moves below BTC it will remain bearish.

BTC/USD PnF, QQE MT4, WWV, RSI, Gann HL, SAR

BTC Indicators table

Indicators / BTC conclusion

As we can see from the table above BTCs indicators on the whole are bearish. This alongside the weak attempted move up and the stiff resistance at the 0.236 Fibonacci level on the whole promote a current bearish sentiment. However, there are also potential arguments as mentioned earlier towards bullish movement.

POWR (PowerLedger)

After suffering heavily like many other cryptocurrencies since the start of September, POWR has formed a potentially bullish formation recently. A cup and handle formation has formed. The formation is currently in its early stages.

As shown below POWR has recently broken above the downwards resistance line. The downwards resistance line which has been broken above had five points of validation. After the break above there was a short period of sideways trading, with an attempt to move above $0.09 USD very recently.

POWR/USD bullish cup and handle

If the cup and handle formation were to complete itself, gains of up to 32% before the handle formation could be expected. In order to complete the cup and handle formation POWR would need to clear the $0.092 USD resistance level then the $0.103 USD resistance level (+12%). The potential movement of POWR if the formation completes itself is shown below. As shown below if POWR completes the formation, the long term target for POWR would be $0.145 USD.

POWR/USD potential movement

Do the indicators support this formation?

POWR has the support from multiple indicators to breach the $0.092 USD resistance level and complete the formation.

SAR – The SAR is currently below the candles, this is a bullish signal. The SAR being below shows that POWR currently has positive momentum.

MACD – The MACD is currently positive with a green histogram, this is a bullish signal. Alongside this due to the MACD having a green histogram while the EMAs of the MACD are underneath the centre line indicates that there is still potentially lots of room for POWR to grow.

QQE MT4 – The QQE MT4 has a positive cross over around the 50 mark of the indicator, this is a bullish signal. Due to the QQE MT4 being around the 50 mark, it also indicates that there is plenty of room for POWR to grow.

Gann HL – The Gann HL is currently blue and has seen a recent flip from red – blue, this is a bullish signal.

POWR/USD SAR, Gann HL, QQE MT4, MACD

BTC/USD – POWR/USD correlation

POWR has recently shown a very close correlation to BTC. The small market cap cryptocurrency has shown little independence from cryptos’ main player. POWR has been an exaggerated BTC recently, with much higher volatility. This means that POWR will likely be majorly affected with the TA changing very quickly if BTC falls below $10000 USD.

POWR/USD SAR, Gann HL, QQE MT4, MACD

POWR/USD downside targets

AAB

Unlike POWR, AAB has shown little correlation to BTC and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. While many of the other cryptocurrencies have been losing significant value recently, AAB has gained 21% over the course of a week. However AAB is coming up to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This is significant because AAB recently rejected this level, as demonstrated below.

AAB/USD Fibonacci levels

Once the 0.382 level was rejected it saw AAB retrace to just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. It also saw AAB break below the parallel channel which it has been trading within since 11/08/2020. AAB found support at the 0.5 retracement level, showing traders that AAB had not yet finished at having a go at breaking above $0.75 USD.

AAB/USD Channel and Fibonacci retracement

However as demonstrated below, AAB may not be able to break above $0.75 USD due to the recent bearish formation which is taking place. The formation which has occurred is an ascending wedge with a descending pre-trend line.

AAB/USD

This formation may be bearish, although the breakout direction which occurs will depend whether AAB is bullish or bearish. Below in the chart there are two possible options.

Blue line

The blue line shows what it would potentially look like if AAB broke above the ascending wedge. AAB could test $0.7 USD before using the ascending support (current resistance) of the wedge. From here AAB could then launch itself back towards the $1 USD region, increasing around 53% from AABs current position.

Red line

The red line shows what it could look like if AAB broke below the ascending wedge. Due to the formation being bearish, this is the most likely situation – however it is still possible that the blue line occurs. Red line would see AAB firstly hit the $0.55 USD resistance level. From here AAB could well lose lots of its recent gains as a health retracement, potentially dropping all the way to $0.39 USD, a substantial loss of 37%.

AAB/USD potential directions

What are the indicators saying? Red or Blue line?

SAR – The SAR currently has bullish momentum and is underneath the candle, supporting an upwards breakout of the ascending wedge.

BBs – The BBs are also currently bullish. However a bullish test of the 20 SMA of the BB could require some minor adjustments of the wedge. Readjustments of the wedge are normal due to the somewhat objectiveness of wedge pattern formations.

AAB/USD indicators, SAR, BBs

MACD – The MACD has shown a lot of uncertainty recently. It is currently neutral, although showing signs that it may decide to turn bearish, with a lot of uncertainty at the top. This uncertainty has been displayed through the constant flipping of the MACD. The potential to turn bearish is much higher than bullish, due to AAB having an extended positive run and the MACD being in the upper regions.

RSI – The RSI is currently bearish. This is due to AAB being consistently overbought. By itself the RSI would not be bearish and instead could signal an extended bullish run. However alongside the bearish formation, the RSI is bearish.

AAB conclusion

In conclusion AAB is looking somewhat uncertain, however once a breakout has occurred it will be very clear of what the medium term has to offer. If it is bearish and AAB breaks below, then there is the potential for AAB to fall towards $0.4 USD easily. However if there is a positive breakout, then $1 USD could be the next point of call after $0.75 USD is broken