BTC has recently become very hard to dissect, this is due to the lack of volatility. BTC has moved within a 10% trading range over the past month, failing to break above $10500 USD or below $8500 USD. A different type of trading method/outlook may be needed in order to see which direction BTC wants to move. For this we are going to use the Wyckoff trading method.
Richard Wyckoff was one of the major technicians of Wall Street alongside Dow, Gann and Elliot. His trading methods are used by many still today. He was an editor of the Wall Street magazine and founded his own firm in his 20s having worked as a stock runner since the age of 15. His trading tactics are based around market cycles and interest levels in certain stocks/assets.
His most famous creation was the Wyckoff market cycle which is a basic trading principle, allowing people to set their positions dependent on the supply and demand in the stock market.
Looking at BTC currently, it appears as though the Wyckoff market cycle may be applicable. It appears as though BTC is currently in the distribution area.
As demonstrated above you can see how well the Wyckoff market cycle fits BTC currently. Firstly the decline in volume during the overbought period represents a lack of demand for BTC. This lack of demand is also indicated by the RSI, as shown below.